According to the “China securities journal” news since the second quarter, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices have increased. A senior executive of a listed aluminium company in northwest China said the price of aluminium in the second quarter would be “optimistic” due to international events and rising demand.
According to the analyst, from the demand side, compared to the first quarter, the second quarter of strong demand. On the one hand, the United States is the main exporter of electrolytic aluminum in China, and the rusal incident will squeeze a certain amount of market demand in the United States (the factor of sino-us trade friction is not taken into account for the moment). More importantly, with the rise in temperature, domestic construction projects and factories have started, electrolytic aluminum downstream of the profile, construction, transport and transport facilities, power and industrial aluminum materials are entering the peak demand season, electrolytic aluminum traditional peak season, demand is good.
From the perspective of supply side, operating capacity is low and supply increment is not as expected. At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price is not high, about 14,000 yuan/ton, in the relative bottom, because of the winter production limit and production stoppage of electrolytic aluminum plant production desire is not as high as expected.
In terms of futures, the main electrolytic aluminum contract has fallen all the way since the third quarter of 2019. It started to rebound after hitting a phased low of 13715 yuan/ton on March 30 this year, and the trading volume has been significantly amplified. It is expected that the probability of an upward trend will appear.
From the upstream of electrolytic aluminum, a large aluminum smelter in xinjiang said that about 80 percent of the cost of electrolytic aluminum power and alumina supply, stable price.
The above company executives believe that at present, the United States announced that China’s exports to the United States electrolytic aluminum tariffs. If implemented, it will objectively lead to the reduction of China’s electrolytic aluminum export volume, increase the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum, and lower the price. However, after the exchange with a number of people in the electrolytic aluminum industry, most people believe that the sino-us trade friction on the impact of the electrolytic aluminum market will not last too long.